Falkin Investors

Wednesday, October 19, 2005

Exxon falls, and I climb back to the black

I didn’t get to write yesterday, and I regret it since it was such a good rebound day for my simulator. The oil and gas industry basically got hit hard as major leaders fell sharply. (XOM) Exxon Mobile fell on heavy selling, as well as XLE, the spider tracking the smart select oil group in the S & P, also had a big distribution day. What were the results for me? I made almost all of my money back from Monday, and a little more, pushing my account back to around $104,000 and a strong 3rd place. Why third? I am trailing to Ailun, who shorted XLE big time and is reaping the rewards of it right now, and my buddy Mark Zimmer, who is sitting with about $116,000 in account worth. There are 68 competitors in the contest, 45 of which who are active and have made at least on trade in their portfolios.

So, after yesterday’s sour performance in the market, we come to today which thus far is pretty bad (Oil area speaking here). Oil is down over a point, XLE just hit new lows on the day about three minutes ago, and my bets five bets are all red which means green for me. My $80,000+ bet against ARD is proving huge today, as the stock is down over 7% (down $1.66 right now). My puts on ABP, PQUE, and WRES are also all in the money now which is great. I am almost fully margined out with these trades on my 100k starting portfolio, and I look forward to seeing the downtrend continue for the rest of the day.  

Looking down the line Wilma, the next hurricane, is growing in the Pacific and could prove to be a major threat to oil. With this in mind it is important that to keep in touch with news and play my cards right. I think it would be great to see oil back under $60 a barrel. As I went out to Starbucks last night, I saw $2.599 gas which was a lovely site.

I am going to hold all of my positions and sit tight today and see what happens. I will probably post after the close since I did not post yesterday. Later in the week I will do some more searching and see what plays are available for next week. The housing sector may be an area to get into this Christmas season (as in go bearish on) because if the Fed’s do in fact hike up rates, they are doing it partially to slow down the real estate market.
Regards,

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