Falkin Investors

Monday, October 17, 2005

A hard day holds a brighter future

The market had an interesting day today as the NASDAQ just closed up about five and a half points; nothing to jump around over though. Thursday and Friday, though both up days last week (NASDAQ), are not enough to signal a true rally. The volume has declined each up day, and we have yet to see a big accumulation day in October. I am still bearish overall in the market, and I look to see some resistance as the NASDAQ nears its 200-day MA.

With the market looking bleak, my bearish sentiment of the Oil and Gas Us Explorations industry group grows as well. But, looks can be deceiving, and I got hit hard today in my simulator. My biggest bets from last week gapped up early today, turning my account into dirt. My simulator account opened at around $106,000, but now sits at $98,416.95. In total I lost almost $8,000 in value, and it is only Monday. I am still holding all of my five positions from last week (got Puts on three companies, and two companies I am short on), and am hoping tomorrow holds a brighter future.

I want to end today with a couple predictions:

  1. The NASDAQ has shown no signs of rallying, and I predict its bearish trend to continue into November.

  2. The Oil&Gas Us Explorations and Productions Industry Group isn’t going anywhere fast, and I also predict the bearish trends to continue till at least early November.

  3. Google rallied today, closing up $8.55, but did so on lower volume. With Distribution surrounding this stock I am a better against it. Though unpredictable, I don’t see Google above $300 for too long.

I also want to end here making a comment about crediting people’s work. I don’t believe in crediting work without someone proving themselves. There are two reasons I write in this blog every trading day: to help people, and to earn my own keep. As I go forth I will start to come out with more and more of my predictions. I hope that anyone who reads them takes note and credits me based on them. I put all my success from the past years trading live aside, as it is irrelevant to me. What matters to me is what I predict here now today, and how right I am. I hope that people can learn through my successes and failures, and become better traders in the end.

My closing belief - Don’t credit anyone unless credit is deserved. People will talk the talk all day, but walking the walk requires skill. Talking about the finish line is not the same as crossing the finish line.

To the future,

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